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Western U.S. Lumber To begin with, you will read a market summary and
conclusion. I will address the reasons why the market is doing
what it is doing and what I expect to happen next. Hence...analysis and
forecast. |
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| Bull-o-meter: This is a quick reference to my own bullish or bearish sentiment based upon the week's fundamental and technical analyses. Taking a quick glance here before reading will instantly tune you in with my thinking and confirm by opinion of the markets. |
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| EDP's: Estimated Decision Points The markets trade in predictable, repeating cycles. Here you will see the current trend as compared to the EDP Trend Line, which reveals the repeating cycle. This will give you a clue as to what the market is likely to do next and how much longer the current trend will last, plus you can quickly recognize if the market is trading at price extremes. Occasionally there will be counter cyclical moves that I will try to identify before they occur. EDP's are only indications of the timing and duration of a cycle not the strength of the move. EDP's do not project price objectives. Because if the thinness and volatility of the lumber futures contract I do not use EDP's as reliable market analysis. |
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Price Comparisons: This is meant only to serve as trend verification. You know better than I what you are paying for lumber. More in depth pricing can be found on Pages 7 & 8. Sales/Production Ratio: Look there to verify mill order files. If the 3-week average is over 100% they have an order file. If it is below 100%, they do not. Not available for futures. (Prices reflect the most recent trading levels, but are not necessarily mill quotes. All sources are believed to be reliable and are strictly confidential.) |
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